I Dreamt I had to Die I understood I would be dead in 30 minutes. Don’t ask how or when I found this out. Because I didn’t find it out. I just knew that I would not be alive after 30 minutes, just as I knew I was alive at that moment, and that I was sitting on a bench in some place, a place that was or wasn’t a real place. ...

people should not associate on the basis of “their” ideas. Ideas are powerful and they can only come from humans, but they aren’t humans. Friends share aims, journeys. ideas need to be processed together by friends as by any person, but they do not need to take over for the people. “hey are you a republican? can we be friends” “thats a stupid question. " Lewis pointed out friends just make us more of what we’re aiming at. Friends can encourage glory to god as well as chasing after evil. ...

Let’s predict the future! of what? I like Lindy Effect and Bezos’s “What won’t change in the next 5 years?” SO many people think medical industry is broken, so seems there could be a big froth of uncertainty

Outline How did the architects of the Meiji Restoration get buy-in from elites? One would think that without such buy-in, Meiji restoration would not have happened. But what did any of the relevant elites think were the possible alternatives? By 18XX, they had the results of the handy natural experiments of China, India, Indonesia, and Thailand as examples of what resulted from different strategic responses to western imperialism. architects and elites. ...

Meiji Restoration How the Meiji Restoration bought in elites. Japanese samurai did not just accede to the total destruction of their way of life and status in society, but actively fought for it. How did the architects of the Meiji Restoration convince samurai to accept change? First, there were elites of various stripes before Meiji. “Samurai” is not an actual distinction. “Shi” is the official class which people sometimes mean when using the term “samurai”. Elites existed across ALL classes 士農工商 (shi, nou, kou, shou). The “architects” were the emperor, his courtiers, and several entities within the shi class. Some of the architects were NOT considered elite (though they were considered samurai of low rank) until they became the Meiji government). ...

-– date: ‘2025-06-12’ summary: ‘All our philosophical angst has one answer.’ draft: true tags: [] title: ‘One quote to rule them all’ -– One Quote to Rule Them All “Our main business is not to see what lies dimly at a distance, but to do what lies clearly at hand.” This one quote answers all of today’s most pressing questions? Why are we here? Will AI kill us all? Yes we are at the beginning of infinity, but our progress still depends on growing knowledge by doing what lies clearly at hand. ...

The Singularity is Farther or: how to make questions less stupid “Singularity” means a point beyond which progress will not be predictable. In one sense, the singularity has always been behind us. We can’t really predict anythiing. We call the discoveries we make knowledge and its DEFINITION is somethinig we didn’t know before (and hence mgith now change everything going forward, again in ways we might not even predict now that we have the new knowledge, much less before we got it) ...

-– date: ‘2025-06-11’ summary: ‘Timing is Everything’ draft: true tags: [] title: ‘Exponential Growth is an Illusion’ -– Instead of saying “x grows exponentially”, it always means: “x appears to grow exponentially as long as all possible causal effects don’t change as well (a froth of uncertainty)” The Exponential Illusion Exponential/geometric growth $y = ae^{bt}$ (continuous) $ y = ar^n$ (discrete) “geometric” examples of when it happened in reality computer operations in an algorithm ...

the only progress we need I think the world is getting better. I think believing that is actually necessary for bringing it about. We have this weird ability to invite what we ask for It is debatable humans make progress. What is our best idea of what has already happened? “There is nothing new under the sun.” “Ask and it shall be given to you.” A garden needs tending. Even the Garden of Eden was a place in need of tending. A place of progress. ...

There are no absolute laws. Some may say that we may not obey moral or legal laws, but are obligated to obey physical laws. But we already think that’s not true. The third “law” of thermodynamics even has “approaches” in it to indicate that there is no absolute way to follow it. Energy is not conserved in the universe. energy only “approaches” being conserved when spacetime “approaches” straightness. All models are wrong. some are useful. Until their usefulness diminishes. Then we get more use out of a better model. ...